I had to watch this in iPlayer several times to understand the trick, and think I've figured it (well, at least parts of it) out.
1. Where Sherlock places Watson: he makes it very precise where Watson should watch him. You can see that there's a small building between the pavement underneath the building (where he supposedly falls on) and where Watson is standing - meaning that Watson and the sniper (who is seen pointing at Watson's head from side/back, which means that he is also looking at Sherlock from a similar direction as Watson) can clearly see sherlock fall, but can't see him actually hitting the ground himself. The view would be obscured by the building.
2. And Sherlock DOES fall.
Many people have been saying that it was Moriarty's corpse that fell, but the falling shots clearly show that it is Sherlock himself, waving his feet and arms in the air as he plummets from the rooftop.
Besides, he was holding his phone while talking to Watson so unless he was able to turn Moriarty's (who's of a significantly different appearance from Sherlock) corpse into a marionette in 30 seconds, there's just no way for that to work. He had to fool both Watson and the sniper perfectly- and they weren't that far away- so expecting them to mistake a corpse for a living man..well...
And with the speed at which he fell, there is couldn't possibly have clung to a window or something (amazing as he is, he's not Ethan Hunt) so that means only one thing - he fell, but not onto the hard concrete pavement. And what is it?
3. The dump truck:
He could have fallen into the truck (he was waving hard as he fell, so maybe he was trying to get to the truck) OR seeing that the pavement is quite broad, maybe Molly had prepared some kind of safety net underneath the building.
Right after the fall, Watson initially sees 'Sherlock' on the ground with blood and all - I suspect that body there is not Sherlock yet, but another corpse dressed in his signature attire.
THEN Watson gets hit by a biker, which now buys Molly&co enough time to switch that body with real Sherlock, drenched in blood and probably medicated to slow down his pulse and relax his muscles so that a professional (but disorientated) doctor Watson is forced to conclude him dead. Also, except for the blood Sherlock's 'body' wasn't mangled in any other way... but Watson was not granted the time (or the sense) to check on this because the paramedics rushed him away ever so immediately.
How could Molly have done all this in such short time when there appear to have been so many passers-by? There's an explanation to that..
4. There is absolutely NO ONE on this street or around Watson when Sherlock supposedly hits the ground. And yet, as soon this has been done, suddenly people rush in to check up on him, preventing Watson to go near the 'corpse'.
(5. AND THE DUMP TRUCK JUST DRIVES OFF!!
It driving off means there was a driver inside it. WHAT KIND OF ORDINARY TRUCK DRIVER would just drive off like that when a man has just fallen from the sky right next to you? That truck has a LOT to answer for, while we are tortured for another 18 months or so for the Season 3....)
Molly could not have done this alone, and yet using ordinary actors/medical staff to stage this wouldn't have kept the secret... hence I smell Mycroft's involvement here..
6. His facial expression and hand gesture at the end, I felt, is closer to that of anxiety or bitterness, than that of sadness or the guilt of driving his only brother to death. And the fact that he's sitting at that room with the 'hush-hush' atmosphere perhaps conveys the secret he now holds.
Also, earlier on in the episode, he says that he is sorry to Watson - and the tone wasn't really 'I'm sorry about the fact I've sold Sherlock' but more like 'I know how much Sherlock means to you, so I'm sorry to YOU, should I be forced to ignore your grief sometime in the future for the sake of protecting him'.
It is shown throughout the series that Mycroft actually worries and cares a great deal for his brother, and he is a very smart man. I don't think he's inhuman/stupid enough to sell Sherlock's details to Moriarty without any extra safety measures, so I definitely think he's involved in this.
7. The biker: you can even see that the biker is kinda EYEING Watson and the direction he's moving. He's coming at a rather steady pace too, so this definitely wasn't an accident, as all of us would have figured out by now.
And WHAM. The biker looks at Watson. AND JUST RIDES OFF.
WHAT KIND OF ORDINARY BIKER would do that when you've just hit someone SO HARD that he FALLS FLAT ON THE GROUND??
So here's my conclusion:
-People have been stopped from coming onto the street thanks to Mycroft
-Sherlock actually falls
-But safely into the dump truck with Molly in it
-or possibly a safety net (optional)
-A corpse was initially laid out on the pavement to buy time (optional)
-Watson sees the body
-Watson then gets hit to buy more time and also to distract the sniper
-The body on the pavement now is definitely Sherlock, medicated and soaked in blood by Molly
-The truck disappears and people (some of them possibly put in by Mycroft) rush in
-Watson comes closer and see Sherlock 'dead'
-Sherlock is taken away into the hospital
-Snipers retreat
-With the help of Molly, is pronounced dead
-Tabloid goes crazy
-But in the meantime Sherlock sneaks out of the hospital and hides in a safe place.
All this might be wrong, though- We'll find out, once.. well.. at least not for another year, I guess.
In the meantime, POOR WATSON...............
But don't grieve too much. Season III is definitely coming out & you shalt be united once again!!!
(I can already imagine Watson punching Sherlock lol)
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